Spezia 2–0 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cagliari

3/12/2022

Serie A · Round 29Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spezia40%

×Draw26%

Cagliari34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.28

Spezia

1.42

Cagliari

1.28

Spezia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 118 away

1.17

creates per match

0.90

1.66

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Spezia

1.17

Cagliari

0.90

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Cagliari

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

66%

Spezia or Cagliari

74%

Draw or Cagliari

60%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

19%

Cagliari wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

76%

Spezia 2+ goals

41%

Spezia 3+ goals

17%

Cagliari 1+ goals

72%

Cagliari 2+ goals

37%

Cagliari 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

54%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.68 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Cagliari defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cagliari attack 0.90 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spezia scores more

40%

level

26%

Cagliari scores more

34%

Spezia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff