Spezia 0–1 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bologna

M. Arnautović 83' (pen)

11/28/2021

Serie A · Round 14Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia31%

×Draw27%

Bologna42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.36

Spezia

1.11

Bologna

1.36

Bologna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 37 away

1.09

creates per match

1.06

1.66

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Spezia

1.09

Bologna

1.06

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Bologna

1.13

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Spezia-0.53scores less

Bologna+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

58%

Spezia or Bologna

73%

Draw or Bologna

69%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

12%

Bologna wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

67%

Spezia 2+ goals

30%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Bologna 1+ goals

74%

Bologna 2+ goals

39%

Bologna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

42%

Bologna (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.66 · 9 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.09 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bologna attack 1.06 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more

31%

level

27%

Bologna scores more

42%

Bologna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Ł. Skorupski

Bologna · G

8.2

Match Events

38'

Arkadiusz Reca

58'

E. Salcedo← J. Antiste

58'

E. Colley← D. Strelec

58'

J. Sala← A. Reca

70'

Eddie Salcedo

75'

A. Skov Olsen← R. Orsolini

75'

N. Sansone← M. Barrow

75'

E. Vignato← M. Svanberg

76'

K. Agudelo← V. Kovalenko

76'

Salvador Ferrer← K. Amian

82'

M'Bala Nzola

83'

M. ArnautovićPenalty

85'

K. Bonifazi← N. Domínguez

88'

Marko Arnautović

90'

I. Mbaye← M. Arnautović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaBologna

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots17

3Corners6

15Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots17

5On Target5

6Off Target7

2Blocked5

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

380Total Passes504

300Accurate Passes428

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0