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Spezia U19 vs Virtus Entella U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Spezia U19
Spezia U19
FT
1 – 2
Virtus Entella U19
Virtus Entella U19
9/16/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 1Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Spezia U1942%
×Draw23%
Virtus Entella U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia U19
1.69
Virtus Entella U19
1.52

Spezia U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Spezia U19
1.98
Virtus Entella U19
1.65

allows per match

Spezia U19
1.40
Virtus Entella U19
1.40

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par
Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Virtus Entella U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw
65%
Spezia U19 or Virtus Entella U19
77%
Draw or Virtus Entella U19
58%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+
22%
Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals
82%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
50%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
24%
Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals
78%
Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals
45%
Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Virtus Entella U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.65 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia U19 scores more
42%
level
23%
Virtus Entella U19 scores more
35%

Spezia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Spezia U19 1–2 Virtus Entella U19

Virtus Entella U19 beat Spezia U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Intels Training Center Ferdeghini in La Spezia.