Spezia U19 0–1 Napoli U19: Result & Stats

Spezia U19

FT

0 – 1

Napoli U19

5/29/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 22Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Spezia U1941%

×Draw23%

Napoli U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spezia U19Expected goals in this matchNapoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.54

Spezia U19

1.65

Napoli U19

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 42 away

1.98

creates per match

1.69

1.40

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Spezia U19

1.98

Napoli U19

1.69

allows per match

Spezia U19

1.40

Napoli U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par

Napoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Napoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw

64%

Spezia U19 or Napoli U19

77%

Draw or Napoli U19

59%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+

21%

Napoli U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals

81%

Spezia U19 2+ goals

49%

Spezia U19 3+ goals

23%

Napoli U19 1+ goals

79%

Napoli U19 2+ goals

45%

Napoli U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Napoli U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Napoli U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Napoli U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.65

Napoli U19 attack 1.69 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spezia U19 scores more

41%

level

23%

Napoli U19 scores more

36%

Spezia U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff