Spezia U19 1–2 Benevento U19: Result & Stats

Spezia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Benevento U19

10/5/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 4Intels Training Center Ferdeghini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Spezia U1948%

×Draw23%

Benevento U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spezia U19Expected goals in this matchBenevento U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.32

Spezia U19

1.79

Benevento U19

1.32

Spezia U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

1.98

creates per match

1.24

1.40

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Spezia U19

1.98

Benevento U19

1.24

allows per match

Spezia U19

1.40

Benevento U19

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia U19+0.00on par

Benevento U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia U19 ↓

Benevento U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Spezia U19 or draw

72%

Spezia U19 or Benevento U19

77%

Draw or Benevento U19

52%

Winning margin

Spezia U19 wins by 2+

26%

Benevento U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spezia U19 1+ goals

83%

Spezia U19 2+ goals

53%

Spezia U19 3+ goals

26%

Benevento U19 1+ goals

73%

Benevento U19 2+ goals

38%

Benevento U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spezia U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Benevento U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia U19 at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.40 · 83 matches

Benevento U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.61 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia U19 attack 1.98 + Benevento U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Benevento U19 attack 1.24 + Spezia U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spezia U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Benevento U19 scores more

28%

Spezia U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spezia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff