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Speyer vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Speyer
Speyer
FT
2 – 1
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
9/9/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 2Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Speyer24%
×Draw19%
Wormatia Worms57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speyer
1.54
Wormatia Worms
2.46

Wormatia Worms creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

creates per match

Speyer
1.36
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Speyer
2.93
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Speyer+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speyer ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Speyer or draw
43%
Speyer or Wormatia Worms
81%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
76%

Winning margin

Speyer wins by 2+
11%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Speyer 1+ goals
79%
Speyer 2+ goals
45%
Speyer 3+ goals
20%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
91%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
70%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Speyer (draw refunded)
29%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speyer at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speyer attack 1.36 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Speyer defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Speyer scores more
24%
level
19%
Wormatia Worms scores more
57%

Wormatia Worms at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Speyer vs Wormatia Worms

Speyer beat Wormatia Worms 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3 in Speyer.