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Speyer vs Röchling Völklingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Speyer
Speyer
FT
3 – 5
Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
9/27/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 5Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Speyer30%
×Draw21%
Röchling Völklingen49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speyer
1.65
Röchling Völklingen
2.13

Röchling Völklingen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Speyer
1.36
Röchling Völklingen
1.33

allows per match

Speyer
2.93
Röchling Völklingen
1.93

finishing

Speyer+0.00on par
Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speyer ↓

Röchling Völklingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Speyer or draw
51%
Speyer or Röchling Völklingen
79%
Draw or Röchling Völklingen
70%

Winning margin

Speyer wins by 2+
15%
Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Speyer 1+ goals
81%
Speyer 2+ goals
49%
Speyer 3+ goals
23%
Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
88%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
63%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Speyer (draw refunded)
38%
Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speyer at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speyer attack 1.36 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Speyer defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Speyer scores more
30%
level
21%
Röchling Völklingen scores more
49%

Röchling Völklingen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Speyer 3–5 Röchling Völklingen

Röchling Völklingen beat Speyer 5-3 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3 in Speyer.