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Speyer vs Mechtersheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Speyer
Speyer
FT
2 – 3
Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
10/18/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Speyer30%
×Draw21%
Mechtersheim50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speyer
1.64
Mechtersheim
2.16

Mechtersheim creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

creates per match

Speyer
1.36
Mechtersheim
1.39

allows per match

Speyer
2.93
Mechtersheim
1.92

finishing

Speyer+0.00on par
Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speyer ↓

Mechtersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Speyer or draw
50%
Speyer or Mechtersheim
79%
Draw or Mechtersheim
70%

Winning margin

Speyer wins by 2+
14%
Mechtersheim wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Speyer 1+ goals
81%
Speyer 2+ goals
49%
Speyer 3+ goals
23%
Mechtersheim 1+ goals
88%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
63%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Speyer (draw refunded)
37%
Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speyer at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speyer attack 1.36 + Mechtersheim defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mechtersheim attack 1.39 + Speyer defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Speyer scores more
30%
level
21%
Mechtersheim scores more
50%

Mechtersheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Speyer vs Mechtersheim

Mechtersheim beat Speyer 3-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 18, 2021.

The match was played at Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3 in Speyer.