Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Speyer vs Diefflen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Speyer
Speyer
CANC
13:30
Diefflen
Diefflen
2/7/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Speyer31%
×Draw20%
Diefflen49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speyer
1.85
Diefflen
2.35

Diefflen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 79 away

creates per match

Speyer
1.36
Diefflen
1.77

allows per match

Speyer
2.93
Diefflen
2.34

finishing

Speyer+0.00on par
Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speyer ↓

Diefflen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Speyer or draw
51%
Speyer or Diefflen
80%
Draw or Diefflen
69%

Winning margin

Speyer wins by 2+
16%
Diefflen wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Speyer 1+ goals
84%
Speyer 2+ goals
55%
Speyer 3+ goals
28%
Diefflen 1+ goals
90%
Diefflen 2+ goals
68%
Diefflen 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Speyer (draw refunded)
39%
Diefflen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speyer at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speyer attack 1.36 + Diefflen defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.85

Diefflen attack 1.77 + Speyer defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Speyer scores more
31%
level
20%
Diefflen scores more
49%

Diefflen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Diefflen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Speyer face Diefflen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Speyer hosting Diefflen. Match starts February 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Speyer host Diefflen at Speyer FC 09 Kunstrasen Platz 3.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.