Speranţa Nisporeni 2–1 Milsami Orhei

Speranţa Nisporeni

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Milsami Orhei

M. Iurcu 68' (pen), 51' (pen)

S. Plătică 90+3'

11/9/2019

Super Liga · Round 28Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Speranţa Nisporeni22%

×Draw23%

Milsami Orhei55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Speranţa NisporeniExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.78

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.04

Milsami Orhei

1.78

Milsami Orhei creates 71% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 97 away

0.82

creates per match

1.46

2.11

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

0.82

Milsami Orhei

1.46

allows per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

2.11

Milsami Orhei

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranţa Nisporeni ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Speranţa Nisporeni or draw

45%

Speranţa Nisporeni or Milsami Orhei

77%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

78%

Winning margin

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+

8%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals

65%

Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals

28%

Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals

9%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

83%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

53%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)

29%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranţa Nisporeni at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.11 · 28 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 0.82 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Milsami Orhei attack 1.46 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more

22%

level

23%

Milsami Orhei scores more

55%

Milsami Orhei at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

V. Jardan

51'

M. IurcuPenalty

53'

O. Martin← F. Andriuhin

59'

S. Trofan

60'

S. Nazar← D. Ciobanu

66'

E. Timbur

68'

M. IurcuPenalty

80'

82'

86'

90'

90'

I. Arabadji← S. Trofan

90+3'

S. Plătică

Speranţa

Milsami

1

Tîmbur

23

Bolohan

4

Jardan

14

▼

6

84

22

7

98

21

⚽

Plătică

11

▼

99

15

22

5

26

11

17

21

▼

Trofan

87

Chelari

93

⚽2

▼

Iurcu

10

▼

Drăgan

Manager: C. Efros

82'▲A. Mirzoev←▼M. Iurcu

86'▲V. Chișca←▼I. Drăgan

90'▲I. Arabadji←▼S. Trofan

Speranţa Nisporeni substitutes

98Mirzoev70Chișca31Arabadji1Macogonenco

Manager: V. Rusnac

53'▲O. Martin←▼F. Andriuhin

60'▲S. Nazar←▼D. Ciobanu

Milsami Orhei substitutes

17Martin15Nazar31Chirinciuc19Cușnirenco8Rusu