Speranţa Nisporeni 1–3 Floreşti: Result & Stats

Speranţa Nisporeni

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Floreşti

A. Yakovlev 20'

A. Cobeţ 79' (pen), 77'

I. Bondarenco 72'

5/11/2021

Super Liga · Round 32Stadionul Nicolae Simatoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Speranţa Nisporeni46%

×Draw23%

Floreşti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Speranţa NisporeniExpected goals in this matchFloreşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.46

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.82

Floreşti

1.46

Speranţa Nisporeni creates 25% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 62 away

0.82

creates per match

0.81

2.11

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

0.82

Floreşti

0.81

allows per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

2.11

Floreşti

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranţa Nisporeni ↓

Floreşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Speranţa Nisporeni or draw

69%

Speranţa Nisporeni or Floreşti

77%

Draw or Floreşti

54%

Winning margin

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+

25%

Floreşti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals

84%

Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals

54%

Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals

27%

Floreşti 1+ goals

77%

Floreşti 2+ goals

43%

Floreşti 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)

60%

Floreşti (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranţa Nisporeni at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.11 · 28 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 0.82 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more

46%

level

23%

Floreşti scores more

31%

Speranţa Nisporeni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Speranţa Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

I. Gavrilita

20'

A. Yakovlev

34'

A. Bursuc

41'

D. Semirov← G. Coșcodan

46'

A. Rusu← I. Gavrilița

46'

V. Ghenaitis← V. Covcenco

58'

I. Sclifos← S. Trofan

72'

I. Bondarenco

77'

A. Cobeţ

79'

A. CobeţPenalty

83'

G. Spînu← S. Bobrov

Speranţa

Floreşti

1

Macogonen

5

Andriuhin

25

⚽

Bondarenc

55

▼

Covcenco

19

Janu

23

Zeleniuc

9

⚽2

Cobeţ

30

Mateescu

10

▼

Coșcodan

28

Lisu

17

▼

Bobrov

34

Budyuk

10

⚽

77

9

20

21

▼

Trofan

23

▼

87

15

11

14

Manager: I. Osipenco

46'▲A. Rusu←▼I. Gavrilița

58'▲I. Sclifos←▼S. Trofan

Speranţa Nisporeni substitutes

93Rusu4Sclifos1Chirinciuc

Manager: I. Groşev

41'▲D. Semirov←▼G. Coșcodan

46'▲V. Ghenaitis←▼V. Covcenco

83'▲G. Spînu←▼S. Bobrov

Floreşti substitutes

27Semirov99Ghenaitis77Spînu13Liharev