Speranţa Nisporeni 3–0 Codru Lozova: Result & Stats

Speranţa Nisporeni

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Codru Lozova

G. Andronic 48'

S. Trofan 45', 31'

10/31/2020

Super Liga · Round 17Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Speranţa Nisporeni50%

×Draw23%

Codru Lozova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Speranţa NisporeniExpected goals in this matchCodru Lozova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.29

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.84

Codru Lozova

1.29

Speranţa Nisporeni creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

0.82

creates per match

0.47

2.11

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

0.82

Codru Lozova

0.47

allows per match

Speranţa Nisporeni

2.11

Codru Lozova

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranţa Nisporeni ↓

Codru Lozova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Speranţa Nisporeni or draw

73%

Speranţa Nisporeni or Codru Lozova

77%

Draw or Codru Lozova

50%

Winning margin

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+

28%

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals

84%

Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals

55%

Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals

28%

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

72%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

37%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)

65%

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranţa Nisporeni at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.11 · 28 matches

Codru Lozova away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 0.82 + Codru Lozova defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.84

Codru Lozova attack 0.47 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more

50%

level

23%

Codru Lozova scores more

27%

Speranţa Nisporeni at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Speranţa Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

31'

45'

48'

61'

61'

62'

74'

A. Yakovlev← D. Pîslă

74'

O. Ermachenko← A. Rusu

84'

V. Voronchenko← V. Pavlenko

Speranţa

Codru

13

4

11

8

23

2

96

16

30

9

6

▼

Prodan

1

Chirinciu

4

Nasonov

31

▼

Starîș

93

▼

Rusu

8

⚽

Andronic

15

▼

Pîslă

7

Călugher

9

▼

Pavlenko

21

⚽2

▼

Trofan

87

Chelari

14

Guştiuc

Manager: I. Osipenco

61'▲M. Bolun←▼A. Starîș

61'▲D. Kozban←▼S. Trofan

74'▲A. Yakovlev←▼D. Pîslă

74'▲O. Ermachenko←▼A. Rusu

84'▲V. Voronchenko←▼V. Pavlenko

Speranţa Nisporeni substitutes

5Bolun11Kozban10Yakovlev77Ermachenko22Voronchenko34Budyuk96Guyganov

Manager: S. Chirilov

62'▲I. Oprea←▼D. Prodan

Codru Lozova substitutes

28Oprea1Butuc10Pestryakov