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Speranța Drochia vs FCM Ungheni — League #395 2026

Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
8/24/2024League #395League #395 · Round 3Complexul Sportiv Drochia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Speranța Drochia29%
×Draw22%
FCM Ungheni49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranța Drochia
1.52
FCM Ungheni
2.02

FCM Ungheni creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Speranța Drochia
1.71
FCM Ungheni
2.17

allows per match

Speranța Drochia
1.86
FCM Ungheni
1.33

finishing

Speranța Drochia+0.00on par
FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranța Drochia ↓

FCM Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Speranța Drochia or draw
51%
Speranța Drochia or FCM Ungheni
78%
Draw or FCM Ungheni
71%

Winning margin

Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
13%
FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
78%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
45%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
20%
FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
87%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
60%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
37%
FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranța Drochia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

FCM Ungheni away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranța Drochia attack 1.71 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

FCM Ungheni attack 2.17 + Speranța Drochia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Speranța Drochia scores more
29%
level
22%
FCM Ungheni scores more
49%

FCM Ungheni at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Speranța Drochia vs FCM Ungheni

Speranța Drochia beat FCM Ungheni 1-0 in League #395 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Drochia in Drochia.