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Speranis Nisporeni vs Speranța Drochia — League #395 2026

Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
3/15/2025League #395League #395 · 2nd Phase - 2Teren sintetic Nisporeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Speranis Nisporeni76%
×Draw14%
Speranța Drochia10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranis Nisporeni
2.85
Speranța Drochia
0.94

Speranis Nisporeni creates 203% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Speranța Drochia
1.14

allows per match

Speranis Nisporeni
0.75
Speranța Drochia
2.71

finishing

Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranis Nisporeni ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Speranis Nisporeni or draw
90%
Speranis Nisporeni or Speranța Drochia
86%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
24%

Winning margin

Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
56%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
94%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
77%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
53%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
61%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
24%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
89%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranis Nisporeni at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranis Nisporeni attack 3.00 + Speranța Drochia defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.85

Speranța Drochia attack 1.14 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Speranis Nisporeni scores more
76%
level
14%
Speranța Drochia scores more
10%

Speranis Nisporeni at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Speranis Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Speranis Nisporeni vs Speranța Drochia

Speranis Nisporeni beat Speranța Drochia 2-1 in League #395 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Nisporeni in Nisporeni.