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Speranis Nisporeni vs Dinamo-Auto — League #395 2026

Speranis Nisporeni
Speranis Nisporeni
FT
3 – 0
Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
4/26/2024League #395League #395 · 2nd Phase - 7Teren sintetic Nisporeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Speranis Nisporeni87%
×Draw9%
Dinamo-Auto4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranis Nisporeni
3.17
Dinamo-Auto
0.54

Speranis Nisporeni creates 487% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Dinamo-Auto
0.33

allows per match

Speranis Nisporeni
0.75
Dinamo-Auto
3.33

finishing

Speranis Nisporeni+0.00on par
Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranis Nisporeni ↓

Dinamo-Auto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Speranis Nisporeni or draw
96%
Speranis Nisporeni or Dinamo-Auto
91%
Draw or Dinamo-Auto
13%

Winning margin

Speranis Nisporeni wins by 2+
70%
Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Speranis Nisporeni 1+ goals
96%
Speranis Nisporeni 2+ goals
82%
Speranis Nisporeni 3+ goals
60%
Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
42%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
10%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Speranis Nisporeni (draw refunded)
96%
Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranis Nisporeni at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranis Nisporeni attack 3.00 + Dinamo-Auto defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Dinamo-Auto attack 0.33 + Speranis Nisporeni defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Speranis Nisporeni scores more
87%
level
9%
Dinamo-Auto scores more
4%

Speranis Nisporeni at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Speranis Nisporeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Speranis Nisporeni 3–0 Dinamo-Auto

Speranis Nisporeni beat Dinamo-Auto 3-0 in League #395 on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Nisporeni in Nisporeni.