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Spēks vs Rīga United — Cup 2020

Spēks
Spēks
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rīga United
Rīga United
6/1/2025CupCup · 2nd RoundVidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spēks68%
×Draw17%
Rīga United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spēks
2.75
Rīga United
1.27

Spēks creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Spēks
2.50
Rīga United
0.80

allows per match

Spēks
1.75
Rīga United
3.00

finishing

Spēks+0.00on par
Rīga United+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spēks ↓

Rīga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Spēks or draw
84%
Spēks or Rīga United
83%
Draw or Rīga United
32%

Winning margin

Spēks wins by 2+
47%
Rīga United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spēks 1+ goals
93%
Spēks 2+ goals
75%
Spēks 3+ goals
51%
Rīga United 1+ goals
72%
Rīga United 2+ goals
36%
Rīga United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spēks (draw refunded)
81%
Rīga United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spēks at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Rīga United away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spēks attack 2.50 + Rīga United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Rīga United attack 0.80 + Spēks defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Spēks scores more
68%
level
17%
Rīga United scores more
16%

Spēks at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Spēks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spēks vs Rīga United

Rīga United beat Spēks 3-0 in Cup on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs in Valmiera.