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Spēks vs Alberts — Cup 2020

Spēks
Spēks
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Alberts
Alberts
5/14/2025CupCup · 1st RoundVidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spēks82%
×Draw11%
Alberts7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spēks
3.50
Alberts
1.00

Spēks creates 250% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spēks
2.50
Alberts
0.25

allows per match

Spēks
1.75
Alberts
4.50

finishing

Spēks+0.00on par
Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spēks ↓

Alberts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Spēks or draw
93%
Spēks or Alberts
89%
Draw or Alberts
18%

Winning margin

Spēks wins by 2+
65%
Alberts wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spēks 1+ goals
97%
Spēks 2+ goals
85%
Spēks 3+ goals
66%
Alberts 1+ goals
63%
Alberts 2+ goals
26%
Alberts 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spēks (draw refunded)
92%
Alberts (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spēks at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Alberts away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spēks attack 2.50 + Alberts defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.50

Alberts attack 0.25 + Spēks defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Spēks scores more
82%
level
11%
Alberts scores more
7%

Spēks at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Spēks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spēks vs Alberts

Spēks and Alberts drew 2-2 in Cup on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs in Valmiera.