Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartans vs Stranraer — League Two 2018

Spartans
Spartans
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Stranraer
Stranraer
11/22/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Ainslie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Spartans44%
×Draw26%
Stranraer29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartans
1.43
Stranraer
1.11

Spartans creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 103 away

creates per match

Spartans
1.31
Stranraer
1.14

allows per match

Spartans
1.09
Stranraer
1.54

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spartans or draw
71%
Spartans or Stranraer
74%
Draw or Stranraer
56%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+
21%
Stranraer wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals
76%
Spartans 2+ goals
42%
Spartans 3+ goals
17%
Stranraer 1+ goals
67%
Stranraer 2+ goals
30%
Stranraer 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)
60%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.31 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Spartans defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartans scores more
44%
level
26%
Stranraer scores more
29%

Spartans at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Spartans 0–4 Stranraer

Stranraer beat Spartans 4-0 in League Two on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Ainslie Park in Edinburgh.