Spartans 2–1 Queen's Park: Result & Stats

Spartans

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Queen's Park

C. Russell 89' (pen)

B. Dall 83'

J. Fowler 35'

7/12/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Ainslie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spartans35%

×Draw26%

Queen's Park39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpartansExpected goals in this matchQueen's Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.34

Spartans

1.25

Queen's Park

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

1.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Spartans

1.00

Queen's Park

1.29

allows per match

Spartans

1.40

Queen's Park

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Queen's Park →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spartans or draw

61%

Spartans or Queen's Park

74%

Draw or Queen's Park

65%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+

15%

Queen's Park wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals

71%

Spartans 2+ goals

36%

Spartans 3+ goals

13%

Queen's Park 1+ goals

74%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

39%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)

47%

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Queen's Park away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.00 + Queen's Park defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Queen's Park attack 1.29 + Spartans defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartans scores more

35%

level

26%

Queen's Park scores more

39%

Queen's Park at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Fowler↳ C. Pignatiello

45'

57'

68'

68'

78'

78'

M. Scott← B. Henderson

78'

B. Dall← C. Booth

79'

R. MacGregor← J. Bradley

79'

T. Scott← A. Connolly

83'

B. Dall↳ J. Dishington

89'

C. RussellPenalty

90+1'

T. McDonnell← M. Shiels

Spartans

Queen's

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Dougie Samuel

68'▲B. Walls←▼S. Welsh

68'▲Trialist←▼B. Whyte

78'▲A. Wylie←▼J. Craigen

78'▲M. Scott←▼B. Henderson

78'▲B. Dall←▼C. Booth

Spartans substitutes

1Carswell6Wylie10Ndlovu14Walls16Scott22Trialist17Dall

Manager: Sean Crighton

79'▲R. MacGregor←▼J. Bradley

79'▲T. Scott←▼A. Connolly

90+1'▲T. McDonnell←▼M. Shiels

Queen's Park substitutes

30Wills8MacGregor15Carrick16Waugh17McDonnell18McGinlay19Scott28Drozd33Burke