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Spartans vs Livingston — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Spartans
Spartans
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Livingston
Livingston
6/29/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartans20%
×Draw20%
Livingston60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartans
1.23
Livingston
2.23

Livingston creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Spartans
1.25
Livingston
2.20

allows per match

Spartans
2.25
Livingston
1.20

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par
Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Spartans or draw
40%
Spartans or Livingston
80%
Draw or Livingston
80%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+
8%
Livingston wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals
71%
Spartans 2+ goals
35%
Spartans 3+ goals
13%
Livingston 1+ goals
89%
Livingston 2+ goals
65%
Livingston 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)
25%
Livingston (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Livingston away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.25 + Livingston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Livingston attack 2.20 + Spartans defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Spartans scores more
20%
level
20%
Livingston scores more
60%

Livingston at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Spartans 0–0 Livingston

Spartans and Livingston drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.