Spartans 0–3 Kilmarnock: Result & Stats

Spartans

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Kilmarnock

M. Ndjoli 90', 80'

L. Erwin 63'

7/24/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Ainslie Park Stadium (Edinburgh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spartans21%

×Draw25%

Kilmarnock55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpartansExpected goals in this matchKilmarnock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.64

Spartans

0.90

Kilmarnock

1.64

Kilmarnock creates 82% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.87

1.40

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Spartans

1.00

Kilmarnock

1.87

allows per match

Spartans

1.40

Kilmarnock

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Kilmarnock →

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartans or draw

45%

Spartans or Kilmarnock

75%

Draw or Kilmarnock

79%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals

59%

Spartans 2+ goals

23%

Spartans 3+ goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

81%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

49%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)

27%

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.00 + Kilmarnock defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kilmarnock attack 1.87 + Spartans defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartans scores more

21%

level

25%

Kilmarnock scores more

55%

Kilmarnock at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. O'Donnell← R. Millen

59'

I. McFarland← J. Stevens

63'

L. Erwin↳ I. Wilson

64'

A. Corbett← B. Tolmie

71'

S. MacDonald← W. Bremner

73'

D. Thomas← R. McKenzie

77'

M. Ndjoli← J. Jones

80'

M. Ndjoli↳ S. O'Donnell

90'

M. Ndjoli↳ K. Boyd

Spartans

Kilmarnock

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Samuel

59'▲I. McFarland←▼J. Stevens

64'▲A. Corbett←▼B. Tolmie

71'▲S. MacDonald←▼W. Bremner

Spartans substitutes

16McFarland15Corbett18MacDonald14Smith19Carswell17Maxwell12Atkinson

Manager: S. Clarke

46'▲S. O'Donnell←▼R. Millen

73'▲D. Thomas←▼R. McKenzie

77'▲M. Ndjoli←▼J. Jones

Kilmarnock substitutes

2O'Donnell23Thomas12Ndjoli8Dicker10Kiltie13MacKay29Burke