Spartans 1–2 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

Spartans

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Heart Of Midlothian

1/20/2024

FA Cup · 4th RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Spartans18%

×Draw23%

Heart Of Midlothian59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpartansExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.84

Spartans

0.91

Heart Of Midlothian

1.84

Heart Of Midlothian creates 102% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.13

creates per match

2.30

1.38

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Spartans

1.13

Heart Of Midlothian

2.30

allows per match

Spartans

1.38

Heart Of Midlothian

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartans or draw

41%

Spartans or Heart Of Midlothian

77%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

82%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals

60%

Spartans 2+ goals

23%

Spartans 3+ goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

84%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

55%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)

24%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.13 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Heart Of Midlothian attack 2.30 + Spartans defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spartans scores more

18%

level

23%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

59%

Heart Of Midlothian at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff