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Spartans vs Gala Fairydean Rovers — FA Cup 2019

Spartans
Spartans
FT
0 – 1
Gala Fairydean Rovers
Gala Fairydean Rovers
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spartans34%
×Draw23%
Gala Fairydean Rovers43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartans
1.48
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.69

Gala Fairydean Rovers creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Spartans
1.13
Gala Fairydean Rovers
2.00

allows per match

Spartans
1.38
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.83

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par
Gala Fairydean Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Gala Fairydean Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartans or draw
57%
Spartans or Gala Fairydean Rovers
77%
Draw or Gala Fairydean Rovers
66%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+
16%
Gala Fairydean Rovers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals
77%
Spartans 2+ goals
43%
Spartans 3+ goals
19%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 1+ goals
82%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 2+ goals
50%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)
44%
Gala Fairydean Rovers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Gala Fairydean Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.13 + Gala Fairydean Rovers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gala Fairydean Rovers attack 2.00 + Spartans defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spartans scores more
34%
level
23%
Gala Fairydean Rovers scores more
43%

Gala Fairydean Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gala Fairydean Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartans vs Gala Fairydean Rovers

Gala Fairydean Rovers beat Spartans 1-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.