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Spartans vs Elgin City — League Two 2018

Spartans
Spartans
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Elgin City
Elgin City
2/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Spartans46%
×Draw26%
Elgin City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartans
1.47
Elgin City
1.10

Spartans creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 134 away

creates per match

Spartans
1.31
Elgin City
1.10

allows per match

Spartans
1.09
Elgin City
1.63

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par
Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Elgin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spartans or draw
72%
Spartans or Elgin City
74%
Draw or Elgin City
54%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+
22%
Elgin City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals
77%
Spartans 2+ goals
43%
Spartans 3+ goals
18%
Elgin City 1+ goals
67%
Elgin City 2+ goals
30%
Elgin City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)
62%
Elgin City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.31 + Elgin City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Elgin City attack 1.10 + Spartans defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartans scores more
46%
level
26%
Elgin City scores more
28%

Spartans at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartans vs Elgin City

Elgin City beat Spartans 2-1 in League Two on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.