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Elgin City vs Spartans — League Two 2018

Elgin City
Elgin City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Spartans
Spartans
9/27/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Borough Briggs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Elgin City35%
×Draw25%
Spartans40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elgin City
1.40
Spartans
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 55 away

creates per match

Elgin City
1.53
Spartans
1.65

allows per match

Elgin City
1.36
Spartans
1.27

finishing

Elgin City+0.00on par
Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elgin City ↓

Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Elgin City or draw
60%
Elgin City or Spartans
75%
Draw or Spartans
65%

Winning margin

Elgin City wins by 2+
16%
Spartans wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Elgin City 1+ goals
75%
Elgin City 2+ goals
41%
Elgin City 3+ goals
17%
Spartans 1+ goals
78%
Spartans 2+ goals
44%
Spartans 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Elgin City (draw refunded)
47%
Spartans (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elgin City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elgin City attack 1.53 + Spartans defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spartans attack 1.65 + Elgin City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elgin City scores more
35%
level
25%
Spartans scores more
40%

Spartans at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elgin City vs Spartans

Spartans beat Elgin City 3-2 in League Two on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Borough Briggs in Elgin.