Spartans 1–2 Arbroath: Result & Stats | League Cup

Spartans

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arbroath

B. Whyte 55'

R. Flynn 85'

A. Winter 39'

7/11/2026

League Cup · Group StageAinslie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartans54%

×Draw24%

Arbroath23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpartansExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.05

Spartans

1.75

Arbroath

1.05

Spartans creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

0.60

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Spartans

1.50

Arbroath

0.60

allows per match

Spartans

1.50

Arbroath

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartans+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartans ↓

Arbroath →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spartans or draw

77%

Spartans or Arbroath

76%

Draw or Arbroath

46%

Winning margin

Spartans wins by 2+

30%

Arbroath wins by 2+

Team goals

Spartans 1+ goals

83%

Spartans 2+ goals

52%

Spartans 3+ goals

25%

Arbroath 1+ goals

65%

Arbroath 2+ goals

28%

Arbroath 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Spartans (draw refunded)

70%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spartans at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Arbroath away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spartans attack 1.50 + Arbroath defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Arbroath attack 0.60 + Spartans defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spartans scores more

54%

level

24%

Arbroath scores more

23%

Spartans at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Trialist B← Trialist

31'

M. Ross

39'

A. Winter

46'

G. Reilly← S. Robinson

53'

T. Beadling

55'

S. Morrison

55'

B. Whyte

58'

M. McKenna← T. Beadling

58'

66'

66'

76'

78'

78'

85'

89'

O. Fitzsimmons

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Spartans 1–2 Arbroath

Arbroath beat Spartans 2-1 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Winter (39'), B. Whyte (55'), R. Flynn (85').

The match was played at Ainslie Park in Edinburgh.

Spartans vs Arbroath — League Cup 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Spartans 1–2 Arbroath