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Spartanii Selemet vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Super Liga 2026

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
8/13/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 2Stadionul Sătesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartanii Selemet12%
×Draw18%
Sheriff Tiraspol70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
0.81
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.24

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 177% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 92 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
1.13
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.10

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
2.37
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
30%
Spartanii Selemet or Sheriff Tiraspol
82%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
88%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
4%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
56%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
19%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
5%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
89%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
65%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
15%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.10 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
12%
level
18%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
70%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Spartanii Selemet 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Spartanii Selemet 2-0 in Super Liga on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Sătesc in Suruceni.