Sheriff Tiraspol 3–0 Spartanii Selemet

Sheriff Tiraspol

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spartanii Selemet

3/9/2025

Super Liga · Championship Round - 1Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol76%

×Draw15%

Spartanii Selemet9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff TiraspolExpected goals in this matchSpartanii Selemet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.71

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.48

Spartanii Selemet

0.71

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 249% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 48 away

2.63

creates per match

1.00

0.43

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.63

Spartanii Selemet

1.00

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.43

Spartanii Selemet

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Spartanii Selemet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw

91%

Sheriff Tiraspol or Spartanii Selemet

85%

Draw or Spartanii Selemet

24%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

53%

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

92%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

70%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

44%

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

51%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

16%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

90%

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.43 · 105 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.63 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.48

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

76%

level

15%

Spartanii Selemet scores more

9%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff