Spartanii Selemet 2–1 Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Spartanii Selemet

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

T. Ocante 87'

S. Turcan 77'

C. Covali 75'

4/17/2024

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 6Stadionul CS Real Succes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spartanii Selemet28%

×Draw22%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartanii SelemetExpected goals in this matchGagauziya-Oguzsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.94

Spartanii Selemet

1.40

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.94

Gagauziya-Oguzsport creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 6 away

1.13

creates per match

1.50

2.37

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet

1.13

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.50

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet

2.37

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw

50%

Spartanii Selemet or Gagauziya-Oguzsport

78%

Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport

72%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

12%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

75%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

41%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

17%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals

86%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals

58%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

36%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.37 · 46 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.13 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.50 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more

28%

level

22%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more

50%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gagauziya-Oguzsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

C. Covali

77'

S. Turcan

87'

T. Ocante

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff