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Spartaks Jurmala vs Riga — Virsliga 2019

Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Riga
Riga
5/14/2022VirsligaVirsliga · Round 13LNK Sporta Parks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala22%
×Draw21%
Riga56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartaks Jurmala
1.19
Riga
2.02

Riga creates 70% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 116 away

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.63
Riga
2.27

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.78
Riga
0.75

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par
Riga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

Riga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw
44%
Spartaks Jurmala or Riga
79%
Draw or Riga
78%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
9%
Riga wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
70%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
33%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
12%
Riga 1+ goals
87%
Riga 2+ goals
60%
Riga 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
28%
Riga (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

Riga away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + Riga defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Riga attack 2.27 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more
22%
level
21%
Riga scores more
56%

Riga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartaks Jurmala vs Riga

Riga beat Spartaks Jurmala 4-0 in Virsliga on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at LNK Sporta Parks in Riga.