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Spartak Varna vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
5 – 0
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
3/7/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 18Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Spartak Varna92%
×Draw6%
Sportist G.Toshevo2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
4.03
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.55

Spartak Varna creates 633% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 40 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
3.92
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.36
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
98%
Spartak Varna or Sportist G.Toshevo
94%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
8%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
80%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
98%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
90%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
74%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
42%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
11%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
98%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.36 · 25 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 3.92 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 4.03

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Spartak Varna defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
92%
level
6%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
2%

Spartak Varna at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Sportist G.Toshevo

Spartak Varna beat Sportist G.Toshevo 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.