Spartak Varna 1–5 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Ludogorets

M. Georgiev 83'

E. Bile 90' (pen)

Erick Marcus 53'

I. Chochev 50', 29'

K. Duah 47'

3/19/2026

First League · Round 27Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Spartak Varna20%

×Draw24%

Ludogorets56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.75

Spartak Varna

0.94

Ludogorets

1.75

Ludogorets creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.15

creates per match

1.71

1.80

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.15

Ludogorets

1.71

allows per match

Spartak Varna

1.80

Ludogorets

0.74

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.21scores more

Ludogorets+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

44%

Spartak Varna or Ludogorets

76%

Draw or Ludogorets

80%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

7%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

61%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

24%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

7%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

83%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

52%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

26%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.74 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Ludogorets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ludogorets attack 1.71 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

20%

level

24%

Ludogorets scores more

56%

Ludogorets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Erick Marcus

Ludogorets · M

8.9

Match Events

29'

I. Chochev↳ Erick Marcus

39'

Edvin Kurtulus

42'

Pedro Victor

45+1'

M. Kovalyov← T. Chunchukov

46'

B. Tekpetey← Pedro Naressi

47'

K. Duah↳ B. Tekpetey

50'

I. Chochev↳ P. Stanic

53'

Erick Marcus↳ P. Stanic

57'

Edvin Kurtulus

57'

Edvin Kurtulus

61'

I. Nachmias← Erick Marcus

66'

A. Nedyalkov← O. Verdon

66'

A. Salido Tajero← K. Duah

74'

E. John← B. Ivanov

74'

S. Moukachar← T. Marinov

79'

E. Bile← P. Stanic

83'

M. Georgiev

90'

E. BilePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakLudogorets

Overview

34%Possession66%

6Total Shots14

0.72Expected Goals (xG)2.61

1Corners7

6Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots14

2On Target7

2Off Target2

2Blocked3

2Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

309Total Passes622

255Accurate Passes557

83%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls17

0Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

2Offsides0