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Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
11/17/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 13Stadion Lokomotiv (Varna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Spartak Varna87%
×Draw9%
Lokomotiv Ruse4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
3.31
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.61

Spartak Varna creates 443% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 52 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
3.92
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.36
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
96%
Spartak Varna or Lokomotiv Ruse
91%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
13%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
70%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
96%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
83%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
62%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
46%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
13%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
96%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 3.92, concedes 0.36 · 25 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 3.92 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.31

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Spartak Varna defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
87%
level
9%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
4%

Spartak Varna at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Spartak Varna 3–1 Lokomotiv Ruse

Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Varna).