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Spartak Varna vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
11/6/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Spartak Varna21%
×Draw25%
Levski Sofia54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
0.89
Levski Sofia
1.60

Levski Sofia creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.15
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Spartak Varna
1.80
Levski Sofia
0.62

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.21scores more
Levski Sofia+0.45scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
46%
Spartak Varna or Levski Sofia
75%
Draw or Levski Sofia
79%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
7%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
59%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
22%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
6%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
80%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
47%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
28%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Levski Sofia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.89

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
21%
level
25%
Levski Sofia scores more
54%

Levski Sofia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Levski Sofia

Spartak Varna and Levski Sofia drew 2-2 in First League on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.