Spartak Varna 2–1 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Lom

9/12/2021

Second League · Round 9Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Spartak Varna69%

×Draw21%

Levski Lom10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.56

Spartak Varna

1.89

Levski Lom

0.56

Spartak Varna creates 237% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

1.63

creates per match

0.31

0.80

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.63

Levski Lom

0.31

allows per match

Spartak Varna

0.80

Levski Lom

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

90%

Spartak Varna or Levski Lom

79%

Draw or Levski Lom

31%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

43%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

85%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

56%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

29%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

43%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

11%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

87%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

69%

level

21%

Levski Lom scores more

10%

Spartak Varna at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff