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Spartak Varna vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
11/30/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spartak Varna50%
×Draw26%
Kariana Erden24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.52
Kariana Erden
0.95

Spartak Varna creates 60% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.63
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.80
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
76%
Spartak Varna or Kariana Erden
74%
Draw or Kariana Erden
50%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
26%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
20%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
61%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
25%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
68%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
50%
level
26%
Kariana Erden scores more
24%

Spartak Varna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Spartak Varna 1–2 Kariana Erden

Kariana Erden beat Spartak Varna 2-1 in Second League on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.