Spartak Varna 0–1 CSKA Sofia: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Sofia

L. Dellova 3'

4/26/2025

First League · Conference League Play-off Group - 1Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Spartak Varna28%

×Draw27%

CSKA Sofia45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.39

Spartak Varna

1.05

CSKA Sofia

1.39

CSKA Sofia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 133 away

1.28

creates per match

1.32

1.46

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.28

CSKA Sofia

1.32

allows per match

Spartak Varna

1.46

CSKA Sofia

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

CSKA Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

55%

Spartak Varna or CSKA Sofia

73%

Draw or CSKA Sofia

72%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

11%

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

28%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

9%

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

75%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

40%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

39%

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.28 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Spartak Varna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

28%

level

27%

CSKA Sofia scores more

45%

CSKA Sofia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Dellova

CSKA Sofia · D

8.6

Match Events

3'

54'

60'

60'

60'

M. Phaëton← J. Lokilo

64'

C. Ilić← Xande

65'

P. Konaté← V. Mitev

67'

Deyan Lozev

68'

Dimitar Mitkov

72'

P. Panayotov← J. Lindseth

72'

A. Leya Iseka← I. Pittas

73'

Aaron Leya Iseka

78'

A. Tsvetkov← Y. Baurenski

87'

A. Georgiev← M. Stoev

90+2'

Lumbardh Dellova

90+3'

B. Córdoba← I. Iliev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakCSKA

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots11

2.12Expected Goals (xG)1.57

7Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target4

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

280Total Passes546

198Accurate Passes465

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2