Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 46+ matches
Spartak Varna45%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Spartak Varna creates 33% more chances
Season form · 46 home / 71 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Spartak Varna ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches
CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44
CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Spartak Varna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Tsarsko Selo
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Litex
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Strumska Slava
Lokomotiv Sofia
Pomorie
Chernomorets Balchik
Ludogorets II
Botev Galabovo
Kariana Erden
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Nesebar
DobrudzhaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Spartak Varna host CSKA 1948 Sofia II on Sunday, 16 July 2023 at 16:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Second League: Spartak Varna 2–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia II
Spartak Varna beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2-1 in Second League on July 16, 2023.
The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.