Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartak Varna vs Beroe — First League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Beroe
Beroe
5/10/2025First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Play-off Group - 3Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Spartak Varna41%
×Draw26%
Beroe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.37
Beroe
1.20

Spartak Varna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 138 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.28
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Spartak Varna
1.46
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
67%
Spartak Varna or Beroe
74%
Draw or Beroe
59%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
19%
Beroe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
16%
Beroe 1+ goals
70%
Beroe 2+ goals
34%
Beroe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
55%
Beroe (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.28 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Beroe attack 0.93 + Spartak Varna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
41%
level
26%
Beroe scores more
33%

Spartak Varna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Beroe

Beroe beat Spartak Varna 2-1 in First League on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.