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Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
Preview
16:00
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
10/31/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion Spartak
Big match
36%
Spartak Varna
model favours
36%27%36%

Spartak Varna score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Spartak Varna36%
×Draw27%
Arda Kardzhali36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.23
Arda Kardzhali
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 120 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.28
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Spartak Varna
1.46
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
64%
Spartak Varna or Arda Kardzhali
73%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
64%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
16%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
71%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
35%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
13%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
71%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
35%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
50%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.28 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Spartak Varna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
36%
level
27%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
36%

Spartak Varna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Varna
WDLDW
Kardzhali
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Varna face Arda Kardzhali (First League)

First League returns with Spartak Varna hosting Arda Kardzhali. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Varna host Arda Kardzhali at Stadion Spartak.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.