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Arda Kardzhali vs Spartak Varna — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
3/6/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Arda Kardzhali53%
×Draw25%
Spartak Varna23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.61
Spartak Varna
0.96

Arda Kardzhali creates 68% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 54 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Spartak Varna
0.80

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Spartak Varna
1.78

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
77%
Arda Kardzhali or Spartak Varna
75%
Draw or Spartak Varna
47%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
28%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
80%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
48%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
22%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
62%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
25%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
70%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Spartak Varna defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Spartak Varna attack 0.80 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
53%
level
25%
Spartak Varna scores more
23%

Arda Kardzhali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Spartak Varna

Arda Kardzhali beat Spartak Varna 2-0 in First League on March 6, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.