Spartak Varna II 1–0 Septemvri Tervel

Spartak Varna II

FT

1 – 0

Septemvri Tervel

5/17/2025

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 28Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Varna II41%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Tervel34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Varna IIExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Tervel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Spartak Varna II

1.50

Septemvri Tervel

1.35

Spartak Varna II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

2.13

creates per match

1.60

1.10

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Spartak Varna II

2.13

Septemvri Tervel

1.60

allows per match

Spartak Varna II

1.10

Septemvri Tervel

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Septemvri Tervel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw

66%

Spartak Varna II or Septemvri Tervel

75%

Draw or Septemvri Tervel

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+

20%

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals

78%

Spartak Varna II 2+ goals

44%

Spartak Varna II 3+ goals

19%

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals

74%

Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals

39%

Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)

54%

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more

41%

level

25%

Septemvri Tervel scores more

34%

Spartak Varna II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff