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Spartak Varna II vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
FT
1 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
9/11/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 5Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Spartak Varna II69%
×Draw18%
Lokomotiv Ruse14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
2.42
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.99

Spartak Varna II creates 144% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 52 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
86%
Spartak Varna II or Lokomotiv Ruse
82%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
31%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
46%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
91%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
69%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
43%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
83%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.42

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
69%
level
18%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
14%

Spartak Varna II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna II vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Spartak Varna II and Lokomotiv Ruse drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.