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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Spartak Varna II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 1
Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
3/24/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse30%
×Draw24%
Spartak Varna II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.29
Spartak Varna II
1.67

Spartak Varna II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Spartak Varna II
1.24

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Spartak Varna II
1.70

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Spartak Varna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
54%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Spartak Varna II
76%
Draw or Spartak Varna II
70%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
13%
Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
81%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
39%
Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Spartak Varna II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartak Varna II attack 1.24 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
30%
level
24%
Spartak Varna II scores more
46%

Spartak Varna II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Lokomotiv Ruse 0–1 Spartak Varna II

Spartak Varna II beat Lokomotiv Ruse 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.