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Spartak Varna II vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kubrat
Kubrat
5/25/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartak Varna II76%
×Draw14%
Kubrat10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
2.83
Kubrat
0.92

Spartak Varna II creates 208% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 46 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
90%
Spartak Varna II or Kubrat
86%
Draw or Kubrat
24%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
56%
Kubrat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
94%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
77%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
53%
Kubrat 1+ goals
60%
Kubrat 2+ goals
23%
Kubrat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
89%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.83

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
76%
level
14%
Kubrat scores more
10%

Spartak Varna II at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Spartak Varna II 5–0 Kubrat

Spartak Varna II beat Kubrat 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Varna.