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Spartak Varna II vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
FT
7 – 0
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
11/30/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 15Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Spartak Varna II71%
×Draw17%
Dunav ot Ruse II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
2.49
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.92

Spartak Varna II creates 171% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
88%
Spartak Varna II or Dunav ot Ruse II
83%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
29%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
49%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
92%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
71%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
45%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
60%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
23%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
86%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.49

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
71%
level
17%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
12%

Spartak Varna II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna II vs Dunav ot Ruse II

Spartak Varna II beat Dunav ot Ruse II 7-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Varna.