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Spartak Varna II vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
11/12/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 9Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Varna II45%
×Draw24%
Chernolomets 191931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
1.69
Chernolomets 1919
1.36

Spartak Varna II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 91 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
69%
Spartak Varna II or Chernolomets 1919
76%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
55%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
24%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
24%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
74%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
39%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
59%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
45%
level
24%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
31%

Spartak Varna II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Spartak Varna II 5–0 Chernolomets 1919

Spartak Varna II beat Chernolomets 1919 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Varna.