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Spartak Varna II vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
FT
0 – 3
Cherno more II
Cherno more II
5/13/2026Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spartak Varna II40%
×Draw24%
Cherno more II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
1.58
Cherno more II
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 58 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Cherno more II
1.88

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Cherno more II
1.03

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Cherno more II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
64%
Spartak Varna II or Cherno more II
76%
Draw or Cherno more II
60%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
20%
Cherno more II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
21%
Cherno more II 1+ goals
77%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
44%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
53%
Cherno more II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
40%
level
24%
Cherno more II scores more
36%

Spartak Varna II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Spartak Varna II 0–3 Cherno more II

Cherno more II beat Spartak Varna II 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 13, 2026.