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Spartak Tuymazy vs Novosibirsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
8/18/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Spartak Tuymazy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spartak Tuymazy31%
×Draw23%
Novosibirsk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Tuymazy
1.41
Novosibirsk
1.75

Novosibirsk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

creates per match

Spartak Tuymazy
1.86
Novosibirsk
1.43

allows per match

Spartak Tuymazy
2.07
Novosibirsk
0.95

finishing

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Tuymazy ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartak Tuymazy or draw
54%
Spartak Tuymazy or Novosibirsk
77%
Draw or Novosibirsk
69%

Winning margin

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
14%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
76%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
41%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
17%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
83%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
52%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
41%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Tuymazy at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.86 + Novosibirsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.41

Novosibirsk attack 1.43 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Tuymazy scores more
31%
level
23%
Novosibirsk scores more
46%

Novosibirsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Tuymazy vs Novosibirsk

Novosibirsk beat Spartak Tuymazy 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Tuymazy in Tuymazy.