Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spartak Trnava W vs Trenčín W — I Liga - Women 2020

Spartak Trnava W
Spartak Trnava W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Trenčín W
Trenčín W
2/21/2026I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 15City Arena Trnava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Spartak Trnava W66%
×Draw16%
Trenčín W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Trnava W
3.18
Trenčín W
1.70

Spartak Trnava W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

Spartak Trnava W
2.82
Trenčín W
1.64

allows per match

Spartak Trnava W
1.76
Trenčín W
3.55

finishing

Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par
Trenčín W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Trnava W ↓

Trenčín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Spartak Trnava W or draw
81%
Spartak Trnava W or Trenčín W
84%
Draw or Trenčín W
34%

Winning margin

Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+
46%
Trenčín W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals
96%
Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals
82%
Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals
60%
Trenčín W 1+ goals
82%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
51%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)
78%
Trenčín W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Trnava W at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

Trenčín W away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Trnava W attack 2.82 + Trenčín W defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 3.18

Trenčín W attack 1.64 + Spartak Trnava W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Spartak Trnava W scores more
66%
level
16%
Trenčín W scores more
19%

Spartak Trnava W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Spartak Trnava W 0–1 Trenčín W

Trenčín W beat Spartak Trnava W 1-0 in I Liga - Women on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at City Arena Trnava in Trnava.